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    WALL
    STREET
    REVALUED
    Imperfect Markets
    and Inept Central
    Bankers
    ANDREW SMITHERS
    A John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., Publication
    WALL
    STREET
    REVALUED
    Imperfect Markets
    and Inept Central
    Bankers
    ANDREW SMITHERS
    A John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., Publication
    Published in 2009 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
    © 2009 Smithers & Co Ltd
    Registered offi ce
    John Wiley & Sons Ltd, The Atrium, Southern Gate, Chichester, West Sussex, PO19 8SQ,
    United Kingdom
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    Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
    Smithers, Andrew.
    Wall Street revalued : imperfect markets and inept central bankers / Andrew Smithers.
    p. cm.
    ISBN 978-0-470-75005-6
    1. Capital market–United States. 2. Monetary policy–United States. 3. Finance–
    United States. 4. Banks and banking, Central–United States. I. Title.
    HG4910.S565 2009
    332'.04150973–dc22
    2009019921
    A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library.
    ISBN 978-0-470-75005-6
    Set in 11.5/13.5 pt Bembo by SNP Best-set Typesetter Ltd., Hong Kong
    Printed in Great Britain by TJ International Ltd, Padstow, Cornwall
    Contents
    Foreword
    v
    Chapter 1 Introduction 1
    Chapter 2 Synopsis 15
    Chapter 3 Interest Rate Levels and the Stock Market 25
    Chapter 4 Interest Rate Changes and Share Price Changes 37
    Chapter 5 Household Savings and the Stock Market
    41
    Chapter 6 A Moderately rather than a Perfectly Effi cient
    Market
    49
    Chapter 7 The Effi cient Market Hypothesis
    57
    Chapter 8 Testing the Imperfectly Effi cient Market
    Hypothesis
    67
    Chapter 9 Other Claims for Valuing Equities
    81
    Chapter 10 Forecasting Returns without Using Value
    91
    Chapter 11 Valuing Stock Markets by Hindsight Combined
    with Subsequent Returns
    97
    Chapter 12 House Prices
    105
    Chapter 13 The Price of Liquidity – The Return for
    Holding Illiquid Assets
    109
    Chapter 14 The Return on Equities and the Return
    on Equity Portfolios
    115
    Chapter 15 The General Undesirability of Leveraging
    Equity Portfolios
    121
    Chapter 16 A Rare Exception to the Rule against
    Leverage
    131
    Chapter 17 Profi ts are Overstated
    137
    iii
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